rouletteluckyprize| Forecast: The trend of steel prices next week is set!

Medium steel net

Forecast of steel price next week

The main varieties of steel this week are compared with those last week.RouletteluckyprizeThe number of rising varieties has increased and that of falling varieties has decreased. The price of iron ore at the end of raw material rose steadily by 20 yuan, the price of coke fell by 100 yuan, the price of scrap rose by 40-50 yuan, and the price of billet rose by 60 yuan, showing a shock upward trend as a whole. How will the market go next week? look down.

1. The influencing factors of steel market are as follows

1. Trade in old houses for new houses in over 70 cities

According to incomplete statistics, so far at least 71 cities have launched the relevant policy of "trade-in". With the introduction of the new policy of "517" property market, more and more cities have accelerated the implementation of the landing rules of "trade-in". Multi-cities explicitly encourage or promote state-owned enterprises to acquire second-hand housing in the hands of property buyers. (financial Union)

In February and mid-May, the social stock of steel is 11.13 million tons.

In mid-May, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 11.13 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 420000 tons, or 3 percent.Rouletteluckyprize.6%, inventories continued to decline; an increase of 3.84 million tons, or 52%, over the beginning of the yearRouletteluckyprize.7%; an increase of 190000 tons or 1.7% over the same period last year. (China Iron and Steel Association)

A total of 1.272 million Chinese brand passenger cars were sold in March and April.

In April 2024, a total of 1.272 million passenger cars were sold in China, down 4.1 percent from the previous month, an increase of 27.3 percent over the same period last year, accounting for 63.5 percent of the total passenger car sales, and an increase of 8.4 percentage points over the same period last year. (financial Network)

II. Spot market

Rebar this week: strong operation

This week's positive policies continue to boost market confidence and support higher spot prices of rebar in the period, while furnace charge is strong, total inventory continues to decline, and rebar is expected to run steadily and strongly next week.

Hot Volume of the week: stable, medium and strong

Costs still support plate prices, but inventories are high, suppressing spot price increases. However, in many places, housing purchase restrictions have been fully liberalized, ultra-long-term treasury bonds have been issued, and bullish policies have been introduced intensively, and hot rolls are expected to run strongly next week.

Midboard this week: concussion uplink

The output of hot metal fell by 900 tons to 2.368 million tons this week, and the kinetic energy of reproduction in steel mills weakened, but the demand for medium and heavy plates increased, and the overall terminal demand remained resilient. It is expected that the plate shock will be strong next week.

Strip steel this week: strong operation

Macro positive policy positive sentiment continues to promote, the market long capital dominates the trend of steel prices, positive steel prices. Fundamental total inventory continues to decline, demand is also declining, the overall trend to maintain destocking, strip steel is expected to continue to rise next week.

Profile this week: a steady rise

At present, the cost has been on the high side, and there is little room for supply increment in the later stage. The current raw material billet price continues to show a rising trend, and the bottom support space is still there. It is expected that the section steel will run stably and strongly next week.

This week's pipe: stable, medium and strong.

This week, the raw material strip steel increased by 10 yuan, the pipe factory increased by 20-120 yuan, the output decreased significantly, the performance of local demand varied, the social treasury rebounded slightly, the price of traders' resources was higher, supporting the spot market, and the pipe was expected to rise steadily next week.

III. Raw material market

Billet this week: a big increase

Judging from the current market, the profit space of steel enterprises is OK, and the billet itself continues to maintain a high level. From the emotional point of view, this week will continue to boost market confidence, finished wood prices are still expected to rise, billet is expected to rise steadily next week.

Iron ore this week: concussion upward

Hot metal production shows signs of peaking this week, the room for further increase is expected to be limited, and high prices are easy to trigger policy regulation risks in the current market, the current trend of success will be dominant, and mineral prices are expected to fluctuate upward next week.

Coke this week: weak operation

Coking coal supply has always been in a tight pattern, but the downstream coking enterprise replenishment demand is also reduced, basically on-demand purchase. However, the peak of coal consumption is coming, and it is unlikely that Shuangjiao will continue to plummet, and coke is expected to rise steadily next week.

Scrap this week: stable, medium and strong

The operating rate of electric arc furnace continues to pick up this week, steel mills have a certain production enthusiasm, and iron ore is still expected to rise, and strong support for finished materials is expected. Scrap is expected to follow next week.

Pig iron: steady downward adjustment this week

Iron ore prices continued to rise this week, raw material cost support is still there. However, the enthusiasm of picking up goods downstream is low, the overall supply pressure has increased, the short-term pig iron market will maintain a strong supply and demand weak state, pig iron is expected to decline narrowly next week.

IV. Comprehensive point of view

Next week, as steel prices continue to rebound, steel companies' profits have been repaired and production may begin to increase. However, at present, in-plant inventory and social inventory continue to decline, there is no major contradiction in fundamentals. Coupled with the continued introduction of positive real estate policies, there is still support in the macro face of the market, steel prices are expected to be stable and strong next week, with a range of 20-40 yuan.

Decision suggestions: at present, the overall trend is still rising, and the risk of sharp fall is not great, mainly to cover the goods while shipping, from the point of view of performance-to-price ratio, it is not recommended to chase a large number of speculative replenishment, and it is recommended that high inventory should be cashed in time. (for reference only, no investment advice)

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