sicbogame| Real estate enters a new era of "unlimited purchase", property market regulation ushers in a stage of market-oriented easing

After Beijing, Shenzhen and other first-tier cities have completely or partially lifted the property market restrictions recently.SicbogameSales in the property market in various cities started rapidly. Compared with the previous policies such as reducing down payment and lowering mortgage interest rates, lifting the property market restrictions means that the property market has entered a new stage of easing.

At the beginning of May, the real estate market ushered in a wave of policy easing in an all-round way. Recently, Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Xi'an and other "property market vane" cities have introduced new policies to lift purchase restrictions and release market demand. Among them, the May Day holiday coincides with Beijing, which loosens restrictions on purchases outside the Fifth Ring Road, and the boost effect is beginning to show. During this period, the average daily trading volume in Beijing increased by nearly 20% compared with the same period in 2023, and higher than the 2019 holiday level.

As of May 9, only six places in the country still maintain the policy of restricting the purchase of property market. Some people in the industry said in this regard that the current property market has entered a loose stage of full marketization, and there is a high probability that purchase restrictions will be loosened in the future. Superimposed follow-up "destocking" and more supportive policy combinations can play a supporting role in the market.

The turnover of new houses in Beijing on May Day has increased by nearly 20%.

Industry insiders are "cautiously optimistic" about market recovery

On April 30, Beijing relaxed the restrictions on the purchase of housing outside the Fifth Ring Road after 13 years. After the new policy, households with household registration in Beijing can buy up to three houses, and singles and families who meet social security for five years can buy up to two houses. This policy has spurred a rapid increase in turnover in the property market in Beijing. "recently, the pace of sales is really better than before." Mou Qing (a pseudonym), the person in charge of the planning of a real estate enterprise in Beijing, told this magazine that as the company's sale projects are mainly arranged in Changping District, at present, it mainly investigates the Changping plate outside the five rings. "during May 1 this year, Changping plate is better than a few weeks ago." the number of customer visits for five or six new housing projects in the plate is almost all more than 200 groups. However, this is not 'outside the five rings to relax restrictions on purchases' overnight, but superimposed the proportion of down payment, mortgage interest rate adjustment and other early series of policies, consumers are most concerned about whether the developer has made a profit. "

Mou Qing said that during the May Day period, almost every project is in the marketing side, and the most direct way for developers is to raise channel fees: "at present, the real estate market still pays attention to channel king. Rely on Lianjia, Anjuke and wheat fields and other channel companies, they are the main force to get customers. The commission for many projects has been raised to 3%-4%, encouraging brokers to attract more visitors. "

At the same time, at present, the non-core areas of Beijing pursue price for quantity. "some new housing projects are sold at reduced prices at the beginning, such as new houses with a guide price of 50, 000 yuan to 60, 000 yuan per square meter. Under the premise of a price reduction, the average opening price can be reduced by 5000 yuan to 6000 yuan." Mou Qing said, "the basis on which developers are willing to make profits is that the price of government land transfer costs has been reduced according to previous years, and enterprises have room to reduce prices."

In Mou Qing's view, the optimization of purchase restrictions in the area outside Beijing's Fifth Ring Road is in line with Beijing's urban planning to evacuate population resources. However, the outer ring area itself tends to be a rigid demand market, so the newly released demand for housing may be limited as a whole. Data show that the turnover area in Beijing during the May Day holiday is 1.Sicbogame.65 million square meters, with an average daily transaction area of 0.SicbogameWith an average daily transaction area of .33 million square meters, the average daily transaction area increased by 19% over the same period in 2023 and 12% over the same period in 2019.

Similar to the policy adjustment of Beijing's property market, Chengdu's seven-and-a-half-year purchase restriction policy was completely lifted on April 28. According to Kerry's statistics, the number of visits to about 60% of the projects in Chengdu during the May Day holiday has increased.SicbogameIn terms of transaction volume, 35% of the local project transaction volume increased, an increase of about 5% to 10%, and the multi-project transaction volume remained stable.

A consultant for a state-owned enterprise project in Chengdu said in this regard that the local area has begun to attract a group of investors from neighboring provinces and cities, and the number of inquiries from non-local customers in charge of the project has increased by 40% to 50% compared with the price of nearly 30,000 yuan per square meter in second-tier cities such as Suzhou and Hangzhou, and now the average price of a new house in Chengdu is less than 20,000 yuan, which has performance-to-price ratio and growth potential. "

In fact, during the May Day period this year, Beijing and Chengdu were among the few cities with positive transaction performance. According to the data of the Central finger Academy, the average daily sales area of new homes in 22 cities during the May Day holiday this year is still declining compared with the same period last year, and consumers are still in a wait-and-see mood.

However, more and more cities have also entered the stage of unbinding purchase restrictions in the near future. On May 6, Shenzhen relaxed the social security payment requirements in non-core areas, allowing non-Shenzhen households and adult singles to buy one house a year, and families with more children to buy one more. On May 9, Hangzhou and Xi'an lifted all purchase restrictions.

Judging from the success of the "Silver four", which has ended, the market is obviously looking forward to stronger boost measures. Take the four major first-tier cities as an example. According to cloud data statistics, in April this year, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen was 394500 square meters, 1.002 million square meters, 579700 square meters and 288700 square meters, respectively. Month-on-month changes-8.38%,-8.25%,-0.84%, 1.4%. In the meantime, with the exception of Shenzhen, the overall trading volume in first-tier cities fell month-on-month in April.

In the face of the new wave of purchase restrictions and unbinding, Mou Qing holds a "cautiously optimistic" attitude towards the follow-up market: "the recovery of the property market is not an immediate result if the policy is continuously loosened. If the market is always in a downward range, consumers will inevitably remain cautious; if the market is in the return stage, even in the face of more obstacles, customers will try their best to find all kinds of resources to enter the market."

In the previous April, the sales TOP3 camp changed to "protect Zhongwan".

Binjiang and Greentown welcome Hangzhou to lift purchase restrictions on dividends

Judging from the sales results of enterprises, the pattern of the top 100 housing enterprises is still undergoing deep adjustment this year. According to the list of sales performance of Chinese real estate enterprises from January to April 2024 released by the Central finger Academy, the total sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises during that period was 1.24644 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline but a narrower decline than last month.

At present, the ranking competition of the leading camp in the industry is still fierce. In the first four months of this year, the TOP3 camp of the industry changed from "Bao Wanzhong" to "Bao Zhong Wan" in the same period last year, during which Poly Development, China Real Estate and Vanke achieved sales of 96 billion yuan, 82 billion yuan and 77.98 billion yuan respectively.

Expand the scope of observation to the sales list TOP10. At present, central state-owned enterprises and regional leading housing enterprises maintain sales resilience. Greentown China, China Resources Land, Merchants Shekou, Jianfa Real Estate, Binjiang Group, Longhu Group and Yuexiu Real Estate were among the top 10 in April, with an entry threshold of more than 30.2 billion yuan. At the same time, the front-line echelon is still undergoing a reshuffle, including Greentown China, Jianfa Real Estate and Yuexiu Real Estate with sales of 75.52 billion yuan, 41.06 billion yuan and 30.2 billion yuan respectively, ranking 4th, 7th and 10th, respectively, up 3, 3 and 4 places compared with the same period last year.

It is worth mentioning that in the context of the core cities finally lifting the purchase restrictions, betting that local housing companies may be the first to enjoy the market recovery dividend. Sinorama has learned that in Chengdu and Xi'an, which have recently lifted the purchase restrictions, the national leading housing enterprises occupy the local head market share. According to the Carey list, from January to April this year, China Resources Land, China Railway Construction and Poly Development respectively reached 6.366 billion yuan, 5.029 billion yuan and 3.419 billion yuan, with full-caliber transaction volume ranking among TOP3; in Chengdu. In the same period, Shekou, Greentown China and Poly Development occupied Xi'an TOP3 with full-caliber turnover of 4.027 billion yuan, 3.719 billion yuan and 2.872 billion yuan, respectively.

In contrast, Hangzhou market has a strong color of regionalization, and Binjiang Group and Greentown China, which are deeply cultivated in Hangzhou, continue to continue the localization strategy. From January to April this year, Binjiang Group and Greentown China won the top and runner-up position in Hangzhou property market with full-caliber sales of 16.637 billion yuan and 9.494 billion yuan, respectively, according to the Kerry list. At present, Binjiang Group is still adding to the Hangzhou market. According to the enterprise performance announcement, Binjiang Group added 33 new land reserve projects in 2023, of which 27 projects are located in Hangzhou.

The regulation of the property market has entered the stage of market-oriented relaxation.

The policy orientation of "destocking" raises market expectation.

With the lifting of purchase restrictions in Hangzhou and Xi'an on May 9, there are only six places (or some areas) left in the country to maintain the property market restrictions, including the four first-tier cities in the north, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Hainan Province and parts of Tianjin.

Song Hongwei, research director of Tongze Research Institute, told this newspaper that recently, several core cities have abolished the last link of property market regulation, "purchase restrictions". This means that second-tier cities and below have entered a relaxed stage of complete abolition of restrictive policies and full marketization. "it is only a matter of time before other purchase restrictions will follow in the future."

According to Song Hongwei, the background of the overall abolition of restrictive policies is that major changes have taken place in the relationship between supply and demand in China's real estate market. At present, not only are restrictive policies beginning to be completely abolished, but many cities have also given various subsidies to increase support for normal home purchase demand.

In this regard, he predicted: "the complete lifting of the purchase restrictions will have a certain boost effect on the local property market and reduce the pressure on the market, but the timeliness of similar policies is relatively short, market activity may be maintained for a month, and there is a chance to rebound in stages in the later period. For example, the reappearance of 'Golden Nine and Silver 10' in the second half of the year. However, China's real estate market has not yet bottomed out, and it is still facing downward pressure as a whole in 2024. "

Zhang Hongwei, founder of Mirror Consulting, told this magazine that Beijing and Shenzhen are relatively ahead of the four first-tier cities in this round of purchase restrictions, including Beijing relaxing purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road, superimposed macro-level reserve reduction, interest rate reduction and other policies. The trading volume in the next two or three months is likely to improve, "by contrast, luxury apartments in the core of Shanghai have recently stepped out of the independent market. Areas outside the outer ring are facing greater destocking pressure, so Shanghai is likely to introduce targeted easing policies for specific regions in order to stimulate overall market transactions. "

In Zhang Hongwei's view, compared with the past three years, the property market is still bottoming out: "although there are recent signs of warming in popular cities represented by Beijing, the overall market has not stabilized in terms of the performance of more than 300 prefecture-level cities across the country. It is expected that the follow-up 'destocking' and more supportive policy combinations will play a supporting role in the market. "

It is worth mentioning that with the "April 30" Politburo meeting proposed to "co-ordinate the study of policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize incremental housing", the "destocking" of the property market will become an important direction of regulation and control of the industry in the future. "at present, new housing inventory, including second-hand housing market listing volume is relatively high, the market to a certain extent, there is a 'sell-off' phenomenon. If you can digest some inventory, it will directly raise market expectations and promote transaction price stabilization. " Zhang Hongwei said, "generally speaking, the policy orientation of 'digesting stock real estate' can play an impulsive role in improving transaction volume, bringing benefits to the phased rebound in the performance of developers and the replenishment of corporate cash flow."

(the individual stocks in this article are only for example analysis and do not make trading suggestions. )