playdeuceswildpoker| Shen Wan Hongyuan Strategy: Cold Thinking after Concentrated Real Estate Stimulation

Investment tips for this issue:

I. concentrated real estate stimulus policiesPlaydeuceswildpokerShort-term property sales may improve to some extent. But there is no doubt that the continuous effect of real estate policy is the most difficult macro expectation to ferment at present. The market is sceptical about the effectiveness of the fulfilled real estate policy, but there are still expectations for continued stimulus from the follow-up policy. The high elasticity of real estate stocks is directly related to low positions, the policy catalytic density will decrease and the stock price resistance will increase for a period of time in the future.

Real estate stimulus policy concentrated on the ground, some of the demand suppressed by the previous fall in house prices, may be concentrated release in the short term, real estate sales pulse improvement is a high probability. But with regard to the sustainability of policy effectsPlaydeuceswildpokerWe would like to share two cold thoughts:

1. Real estate sales continue to improve, and the transmission of sales to investment can be said to be the most difficult macro expectation to ferment. With the transition from the old paradigm to the new paradigm, the principal contradiction is missing, and it is difficult to ferment the optimistic expectation that China's economy will continue to exceed expectations. At present, the key factor affecting the stock price is the policy catalytic density. After the concentrated catalysis of the policy, the policy effect will be observed for a period of time in the future, and the resistance of real estate stock price will increase.

2. There are still many questions about the medium-term effect of real estate collection and storage: the scope of collection and storage, the source of funds, pricing and the rate of return of the project remain to be clear. High price collection and deposit is more conducive to ease the operating pressure of housing enterprises, but the rate of return of the project will also be compressed, and the government's operation may face greater risk of loss after the purchase and deposit. If the collection and deposit pricing is to ensure the return of the project, it will make the operation of real estate enterprises still stretched, and it will be difficult to restart the real estate sales and investment cycle. In addition, if a large number of deposits are collected, the supply and demand pattern of the rental market may be changed, and the subsequent rigid demand for housing may also be restrained to a certain extent. The premise of the comprehensive development of collection and storage is that residents' housing needs and improvement needs are separated to a certain extent, and the expectations of residents and the focus of the development of housing enterprises need to be adjusted. This also determines that the fermentation of optimistic expectations about the acquisition and storage is not a smooth road.

Second, the market characteristic of "the total toughness is stronger than expected and the structure continues to be weaker than expected" will continue. Two dominant strategies: ambush high cost-effective plate, waiting for rotation opportunities; actively looking for individual stocks Alpha, to make up for the lack of industry and market Beta.

The change in real estate policy provides a short-term direction of attack. However, the market characteristic of "total toughness is stronger than expected and structural persistence is weaker than expected" is difficult to change. At present, the market trading real estate policy continues to catalyse easy, transaction policy effect continues to show difficulty, in fact, it is also a medium-term difficult to sustain the industry beta. In response to such market characteristics, two dominant strategies are suggested: 1. Ambush high performance-to-price ratio plate, wait for the opportunity to move, and dare to stop profits after the performance-to-price ratio decreases. 2. Actively looking for individual stock Alpha to make up for the lack of Beta in the market and industry.

Third, structurally, the industry beta will continue to rotate, and the Alpha assets in the cycle, consumption and export chain are more worthy of bottom position allocation. Continue to pay attention to the manufacturing industry, military aviation chain and new energy car battery chain with clear clues to the long-term economic reversal. Continue to suggest that the medium-term dominance of high dividends, Hong Kong stocks Internet and consumer high dividend revaluation win at the moment.

Structurally, the rotation of industry beta will continue, and the Alpha assets in the cycle, consumption and export chain are more worthy of bottom position allocation.

In addition, short-term Hong Kong stocks are stronger than A shares, which reflects: 1. The effect of foreign real estate stimulus policy is more optimistic. With the improvement of domestic demand in transactions in the second quarter, we can pay attention to the consumption core assets preferred by foreign investors + the weight target of Hang Seng Technology. 2. The valuation of Hong Kong real estate stocks is more sufficient, and the reversal of difficulties is more flexible. 3. High dividends in Hong Kong stocks accelerate revaluation. Short-term foreign investment is more optimistic relative to domestic investment, Hong Kong stocks are stronger than A shares, but the subsequent expected revision, Hong Kong stocks may also be a volatile direction. Continue to pay attention to the manufacturing industry, military aviation chain and new energy car battery chain with clear clues to the long-term economic reversal. Continue to suggest that the medium-term dominance of high dividends, Hong Kong stocks Internet and consumer high dividend revaluation win at the moment.

Risk hint: the overseas recession exceeded expectations, and the domestic economic recovery fell short of expectations.