pennbattle36500| It rose nearly 40% in May. Can the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures still rise?

This article comes from: futures Daily

Increased nearly 40% in May.Pennbattle36500! Can Container Index (European Line) Futures still rise?

On May 13, the performance of Container Index (European Line) futures was still strong, with the main contract 2406 rising all the way after opening, closing up 14%.Pennbattle36500.64%, at 4008.9 points. In the past three months, the Consolidated Shipping Index (European Line) futures have been setting new record highs, rising nearly 40% since May.

On the evening of May 13, the Shanghai International Energy Trading Center issued a notice saying that recently, the futures prices of the Container Index (European Line) have fluctuated greatly. All relevant units are requested to do a good job in risk prevention, invest rationally, and jointly maintain the smooth operation of the market.

On the A-share market, the shipping port plate also strengthened collectively. On the same day, Ningbo Ocean Shipping and Phoenix Shipping closed the trading limit, Cosco Marine Energy and COSCO Sea Control rose by more than 5%, and Ningbo Shipping and Merchants Steamships rose.

Speaking of the recent performance of Container Index (European Line) futures, Zhang Zeyu, a senior oil analyst at Zhejiang Merchant Futures Research Center, believes that the main reason is the advent of the seasonal peak season, the surge in GRI in May and the escalation of geopolitical situation led to a sharp rise in prices.

In terms of freight rates, following the two price-raising failures in April, with the improvement of cargo volume and the continuation of the detour, the mainstream shipping companies have announced two consecutive increases in GRI in May. At present, the price increase of GRI in the first half of May is better. In the second half of May, the Shipping Department announced an increase target of about US $5000 / FEU. Mediterranean Shipping Company took the lead in quoting prices for the first half of June, with large counters at about US $5500, and some shipping companies temporarily raised GRI at the end of May. " Zhang Zeyu said.

The Industry and cycle Group of CITIC Futures Research Institute believes that geographical conflicts and the coordination of supply and demand fundamentals lead to the continued strong operation of Container Index (European Line) futures.

Israel continues to carry out fierce attacks on Rafah, Houthi forces continue to attack merchant ships, and there is no sign of easing the conflict in the short term. From the perspective of the geographical situation, it is difficult to stop the short-term conflict, and the monthly difference of the far-month contract is constantly repaired. " Citic Futures Research Institute Industry and cycle Group said.

Looking at the fundamentals, it is reported that last Friday, the spot market freight rate exceeded market expectations, and the booking freight rate SCFI Europe closed at $2869 / TEU, up 24.7% from the previous month. Judging from the monthly situation, the traffic volume of the European line will continue to climb. In addition, the global ocean route freight rate resonates upward, with the booking price of the African route rising by more than 30% this week, and the month-on-month increase of the US route and South American route by about 20%. As for SCFIS, the SCFIS European line was updated to 2512 points on May 13, up 13.7%. Affected by hoarding, dumping cabinets and delayed shipment, the increase was less than the booking price.

Looking forward to the future, does Container Index (European Line) Futures still have room to rise?

Industry and cycle Group of CITIC Futures Research Institute believes that based on the rising pace of the spot side, Container Index (European Line) futures as a whole are not overvalued. 2406 and 2408 contracts have been changed for months. Considering the accumulation of rising effects in the peak season, the follow-up 2408 contracts are expected to form a contango trend, and prices are expected to reach 4500 points. 2410 and 2412 contracts follow 2408 contracts to repair the monthly difference.

Zhang Zeyu believes that according to past experience, July and August are the peak season for European transportation, and if the Red Sea problem is not resolved and liner companies maintain a detour, then there is still room for subsequent freight rates to rise. At that time, accounting needs to be combined with the quotations of July and August.

According to Linerlytica, a shipping consultancy, the current capacity of Asia-Europe routes has reached 258 ships and 4.282 million TEU, an increase of 17.7 percent over the same period last year. Since December, 38 container ships with more than 15,000 TEU have been delivered, totaling 645000 TEU. The capacity of Asia-Europe routes reached 284000, 283000 and 302000 TEU in April, May and June, respectively, and will increase slightly in June compared with the previous month.

Zhang Zeyu said that combined with the global capacity, the delivery of new ships by liner companies is still continuing. In the short term, China's export data to the European Union exceeded expectations in April, and there has been a super-seasonal recovery in recent shipments. with the advance of the peak shipping season, the short-term supply and demand pattern is expected to improve, and the fundamentals still maintain a tight balance. In the medium and long term, it is expected that there will still be a large number of new ships launched this year and next year, and the supply pressure of transport capacity will increase, and most of them are large ships, with more capacity on the European line, so we need to pay attention to the delivery speed of shipyards and the rhythm of replenishment in Europe and the United States.

The Industry and cycle Group of CITIC Futures Research Institute believes that in the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the market trend from three dimensions: macro end, geographical edge side and supply and demand side. On the one hand, pay attention to the pace of interest rate cuts in Europe and the United States and China's export data; on the other hand, pay attention to whether the situation in the Middle East can be eased. In addition, we also need to pay attention to the utilization rate of shipping space, container turnover and related ship delivery on the Asia-Europe route.