onlinecasinorealmoneypaypalnodeposit|诺安债市点评：利率区间运行，关注预期变化

Source: Nuoan Financial Lion

I. Market profile

Cross-month funds remained stable in the last two trading days before the festival, with the central bank releasing a net 438 billion at the end of the month. The market interest rate fluctuated greatly in the two trading days, rising first and then going down. As the central bank reminded the market to pay attention to the duration risk, it continued the first few days on Monday.OnlinecasinorealmoneypaypalnodepositThe adjustment of the interest rate curve as a whole, interest rates quickly upward, with the capital area loose, the central bank excess net investment, PMI month-on-month decline and the Politburo meeting landed, interest rates fell.

II. Financial and economic information

On April 30th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of the manufacturing industry for April was 50.Onlinecasinorealmoneypaypalnodeposit.4%, down 0.4% from the previous month, and has been in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the manufacturing industry continues to recover. In terms of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.3%, down 0.8% from the previous month; the PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 50.7%, up 0.1% from the previous month; and the PMI of small enterprises was 50.3%, the same as the previous month. From the perspective of classification index, among the five sub-indices that make up the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index and supplier delivery time index are higher than the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employment index are lower than the critical point. In April, the index of non-manufacturing business activity was 51.2 per cent, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month and still above the tipping point, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector.

2. Caixin announced on April 30 that the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of Caixin China's manufacturing industry in April was 51.4, up from 0.3% in March and the highest since March 2023, reflecting the continued accelerated expansion of manufacturing production and operation activities.

3. On April 30, the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to rely on forward efforts to effectively implement the established macro policies and implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. It is necessary to issue and make good use of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds as soon as possible, speed up the issuance and use of special bonds, maintain the necessary intensity of financial expenditure, and ensure that the grass-roots "three guarantees" are spent in full and on time. It is necessary to flexibly use policy tools such as interest rates and deposit reserve ratio to increase support to the real economy and reduce social comprehensive financing costs. It is necessary to do a good job in evaluating the consistency of macro policy orientation and strengthen expectation management. In the light of the new changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market and the people's new expectations for high-quality housing, we should comprehensively study policies and measures to digest the stock of real estate and optimize incremental housing, and step up efforts to build a new model of real estate development. promote high-quality development of real estate. It is necessary to thoroughly implement local government debt risk resolution programs to ensure that high-risk provinces, cities and counties can not only truly reduce debt, but also develop steadily.

4. On April 30, Beijing issued a notice on optimizing and adjusting the city's housing purchase restrictions.

5. The United States added 175000 non-farm payrolls in April, below Bloomberg's forecast of 240000, and for the first time since November 2023, the initial figure was lower than expected. At the same time, non-farm payrolls were added by a cumulative downward revision of 22000 from February to March. The unemployment rate rebounded 0.1% to 3.9% in April, higher than Bloomberg expectations and previous values, while hourly wages fell to 0.2% month-on-month. Jobs data show that while US growth is resilient, the marginal slowdown is likely to rise.

III. Outlook for the future

In the early stage, due to the central bank directly named the long-term bond interest rate, and reminded to pay attention to the duration risk, the market adjusted quickly. After the interest rate went up, the odds of the bond market improved, and the monetary policy named at the Politburo meeting "flexible use of policy tools such as interest rates and deposit reserve ratio" and the large net investment of the central bank at the end of the month, indicating that the attitude of monetary policy has eased. We believe that the rapid decline in interest rates in the early period is not conducive to the stability of social expectations and has a certain restraining effect on risk appetite. The central bank intends to control the slope of interest rate decline from the point of view of reminding long-term risk and guiding expectations, but the sharp rise in interest rates is not conducive to the stable recovery of the economy and the upcoming increase in the supply of interest rate debt, so we tend to think that the recent high interest rates can be used as the upper limit of short-term operation. Under the condition that the slope of economic recovery is difficult to change obviously, the probability of breakthrough is small. However, it should also be noted that there are more obvious changes in the real estate policy at the meeting of the Politburo. We believe that although the probability of substantial policy stimulus in the short term is not high, we need to pay attention to the cumulative effect of the policy and when the real estate will stabilize.

In May, the probability of increasing the supply of interest rate debt is higher, the imbalance between supply and demand in the early stage may be corrected to a certain extent, and with the recent stabilization of the stock market and the rebound of risk appetite, we think it is difficult to break through the early low. The probability of interest rate volatility in the interval is larger, the long-end game attribute is further enhanced, the volatility increases, the medium and short end benefit from the looser monetary policy, the certainty is more obvious. The impact of the current fundamental changes on the bond market is weakened, but it still determines the medium-and long-term trend of the bond market, so we need to pay attention to the fundamental changes outside the trading game.