pennslammer36000|【尿素】尿素装置检修，行情大幅上涨

Source: Guoyuan Futures Research

After the May Day holiday, the main contract price of urea rose by more than 4%, the performance of the cost side was strong in the short term, the superimposed fundamentals improved, and the capital side homeopathic promoted the rise of urea. From a fundamental point of view, on the price side, pre-sale orders for urea before the festival are relatively sufficient, prices continue to be relatively strong after the festival, and quotations in some areas are still rising; on the demand side, industrial demand is boosted by high nitrogen fertilizer production, and there is demand for fertilization or fertilizer preparation in agriculture, and spot production and sales are relatively smooth; on the supply side, some urea plants have been overhauled in the past week or two; therefore, urea inventory is still expected to decline. In the short term, under the support of costs and fundamentals, market sentiment is strong, at the same time, taking into account the urea 09 contract near the previous high, there is a certain pressure, so it is predicted that urea 09 contract market volatility will rise this week.

Focus: capital side, upstream cost, plant maintenance

I. Market Review

The urea 2409 contract rose on Monday, adding more than 20, 000 positions on the day, closing at 2140 yuan / ton, the highest level since 2024, with a daily increase of 4. 5%Pennslammer36000.29%. At present, the price of urea in Shandong is 2260 yuan / ton, and the basis difference is 120 yuan / ton. From a disk point of view, the current urea 2409 contract is running strongly above the moving average system, so we should pay attention to whether it can effectively break the previous high point in the short term.

II. Fundamental analysis

2.1

The demand for urea is strong and inventory continues to decline.

Domestic demand is still strong in the short term. In agriculture, the demand for fertilizer and preparation of fertilizer still exists; in industry, the production of high-nitrogen compound fertilizer is still exuberant, and the purchasing demand for urea will be maintained after May Day. As of May 1, the urea demand of the sample production enterprises of compound fertilizer in Linyi, Shandong Province was 2250 tons, an increase of 40 tons over last week and 1.81 percent over the previous week. As of May 3, the number of days for domestic urea enterprises to issue orders on their behalf was 6.47 days, an increase of 20.93% from the previous month. However, the spot price of urea is on the high side. Although the transaction in the urea market is expected to be warm in the short term, the high price in the later stage may form a certain negative feedback on the shipping speed.

In terms of export demand, from January to March 2024, a total of 20,000 tons of urea were exported. Despite the disturbing market news, it is recommended to treat urea rationally and wait for the guidance of urea export data in April. From the price point of view, the price of urea in China is rising, and the price is higher than the FOB price of other major producing areas. From the prices of other major urea export places, due to geopolitical conflicts and other reasons in the Middle East, the FOB price of large granular urea continued to decline, but the price of large granular urea FOB in the Gulf of the United States stopped falling and rebounded.

The total urea inventory is in a low position in the same period of the past three years, and the domestic total urea inventory continues to decline, but the decline narrows, and the urea port inventory picks up slightly. As of May 3, the total domestic urea inventory was 709300 tons, a decrease of 1.84% compared with the previous month; of which the urea port inventory was 201000 tons, an increase of 1.01%; and the urea plant inventory was 508300 tons, a decrease of 2.92% compared with the previous month.

2.2

Urea is stored for maintenance after the festival, and the cost is still supported.

The increase in the utilization rate of urea capacity is mainly due to the recovery of the shutdown plant in the early stage. In the future, supply is expected to contract during the week. According to statistics, some enterprises have maintenance plans this week, and the parking cycle is about 15 to 30 days, among which the urea production capacity of an overhaul enterprise in Shaanxi has reached 1.05 million tons / year. As of May 3, the utilization rate of domestic urea capacity was 86.35%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points compared with the previous month, of which the utilization rate of coal-to-urea capacity was 88.59%, an increase of 2.89% over the previous month, and that of gas-based urea was 79.46%, an increase of 10.06%.

In terms of cost, the output of urea from coal head accounts for about 77% of the country at present, and the price of thermal coal is rising.Pennslammer36000The cost end support of urea is on the strong side. As of May 6, the domestic thermal coal (Q < 6200) pit price was 829 yuan / ton, up 17 yuan / ton from April 26, up 2.09% from the previous month.

III. Outlook for the future

After the May Day holiday, the main contract price of urea rose by more than 4%, the performance of the cost side was strong in the short term, the superimposed fundamentals improved, and the capital side homeopathic promoted the rise of urea. From a fundamental point of view, on the price side, pre-sale orders for urea before the festival are relatively sufficient, prices continue to be relatively strong after the festival, and quotations in some areas are still rising; on the demand side, industrial demand is boosted by high nitrogen fertilizer production, and there is demand for fertilization or fertilizer preparation in agriculture, and spot production and sales are relatively smooth; on the supply side, some urea plants have been overhauled in the past week or two; therefore, urea inventory is still expected to decline. In the short term, under the support of costs and fundamentals, market sentiment is strong, at the same time, taking into account the urea 09 contract near the previous high, there is a certain pressure, so it is predicted that urea 09 contract market volatility will rise this week.

Focus: capital side, upstream cost, plant maintenance